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物探与化探  2022, Vol. 46 Issue (3): 653-660    DOI: 10.11720/wtyht.2022.1337
  地质调查·资源勘查 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于MRAS证据权重模型的河南老湾地区金矿成矿预测
魏从玲(), 陈建立(), 郭鹏
河南省地质矿产勘查开发局第一地质勘查院,河南 郑州 450001
Metallogenic prediction of gold deposits in Laowan area, Henan Province using the weight of evidence model and MRAS
WEI Cong-Ling(), CHEN Jian-Li(), GUO Peng
No. 1 Geology and Mineral Resources Survey Institute,Henan Bureau of Geology and Mineral Development, Zhengzhou 450001, China
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摘要 

河南省老湾地区是桐柏—大别有色贵金属成矿带上重要的金成矿区。在综合分析该区成矿因素的基础上,提取构置了地层、韧性剪切域、脆性断束、岩浆岩、与Au有关的蚀变带和Au、As、Sb、Ag水系沉积物单元素异常等9个预测变量,基于MRAS软件,采用证据权重模型对该区金矿进行了成矿远景预测工作。本次采用0.10 km×0.10 km的网格单元进行预测,经过各预测变量的先验概率计算、权重值统计、独立性检验和后验概率的计算等过程,划分出A、B、C三个级别的成矿远景区块,根据预测网格分布特点及该区金矿地质特征,圈出了Ⅰ级找矿远景区4处,Ⅱ级找矿远景区4处。综合分析认为:已知金矿床或矿点多数落入A级或B级成矿远景区块,C级成矿远景区块主要是在A级或B级成矿远景区块的周边,与成矿区带从中心向边缘渐变的特征相符合;圈出的Ⅰ级找矿远景区内均已发现金矿床(点),并且后验概率平均值较高,具有较好的金矿找矿潜力。
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魏从玲
陈建立
郭鹏
关键词 ： MRAS,  证据权重模型,  金矿,  成矿预测,  河南老湾    
Abstract：

The Laowan area in Henan Province is an important gold minerogenetic area in the Tongbai-Dabie noble nonferrous metal metallogenic belt. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the metallogenic factors of the area, the authors extracted and established nine predictive variables, i.e., strata, ductile shear zones, brittle fault zones, magmatic rocks, gold-related alteration zones, and single-element anomalies of gold, arsenic, antimony, and sliver in stream sediments. Then, the authors predicted metallogenic prospect areas of gold in this area using the weight of evidence model and the MRAS software. Grid cells with a size of 0.10 km×0.10 km were used for prediction, and they were divided into classes A, B, and C in terms of prospecting prediction through the prior probability calculation, weight statistics, independence tests, and posterior probability calculation of each prediction variable. Based on the distribution characteristics of various classes of prediction grid cells and the geological characteristics of gold deposits in the study area, this study delineated four first- and four second-order prospecting target areas. According to comprehensive analysis, most of the known gold deposits or gold ore occurrences fall into the prediction blocks of classes A and B and the prediction blocks of class C lie around the prediction blocks of classes A or B. This analytical result is consistent with the gradual changes of the metallogenic belt from the center to the edges. Gold deposits or ore occurrences have been discovered in all the delineated first-order prospecting target areas, and the posterior probabilities have a high average. Therefore, first-order prospecting target areas have great gold prospecting potential.
Key words： MRAS    weight of evidence model    gold deposit    metallogenic prediction    Laowan area,Henan Province
收稿日期: 2021-06-11      修回日期: 2021-08-26      出版日期: 2022-06-20
ZTFLH:  P632  
基金资助:河南省财政地质勘查项目(2020[18]-13)
通讯作者: 陈建立
作者简介: 魏从玲(1979- ),女,河南南阳人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事地质勘查及研究工作。Email: weicongling@126.com
引用本文:   
魏从玲, 陈建立, 郭鹏. 基于MRAS证据权重模型的河南老湾地区金矿成矿预测[J]. 物探与化探, 2022, 46(3): 653-660.
WEI Cong-Ling, CHEN Jian-Li, GUO Peng. Metallogenic prediction of gold deposits in Laowan area, Henan Province using the weight of evidence model and MRAS. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2022, 46(3): 653-660.
链接本文:  
https://www.wutanyuhuatan.com/CN/10.11720/wtyht.2022.1337      或      https://www.wutanyuhuatan.com/CN/Y2022/V46/I3/653
Fig.1  老湾地区金矿带区域地质简图[15]
Fig.2  老湾地区金矿成矿预测变量示意
预测变量 P1 P2 P3 P4
地层 1.000 000 0.042 279 0.000 000 0.957 720
韧性剪切域 0.857 142 0.022 780 0.142 857 0.977 219
脆性断束50 m缓冲区 0.571 428 0.010 408 0.428 571 0.989 591
岩浆岩150 m缓冲区 0.500 000 0.093 743 0.500 000 0.906 256
与Au有关的蚀变带 0.285 714 0.009 333 0.714 285 0.990 666
Au异常 0.928 571 0.143 670 0.071 428 0.856 329
As异常 0.785 714 0.214 160 0.214 285 0.785 839
Sb异常 0.642 857 0.197 109 0.357 142 0.802 890
Ag异常 0.785 714 0.244 137 0.214 285 0.755 862
Table 1  研究区各预测变量先验概率统计结果
预测变量 W+ W- C W+方差 W-方差 C值排序
地层 3.163 443 0.000 000 3.163 443 0.071 701 0.000 012 5
韧性剪切域 3.627 708 -1.922 866 5.550 574 0.083 840 0.500 011 1
脆性断束50 m缓冲区 4.005 541 -0.836 835 4.842 376 0.126 109 0.166 678 2
岩浆岩150 m缓冲区 1.674 045 -0.594 714 2.268 759 0.142 980 0.142 869 7
与Au有关的蚀变带 3.421 337 -0.327 094 3.748 431 0.251 237 0.100 011 4
Au异常 1.866 123 -2.483 957 4.350 080 0.077 003 1.000 013 3
As异常 1.299 868 -1.299 442 2.599 310 0.090 963 0.333 348 6
Sb异常 1.182 161 -0.810 082 1.992 243 0.111 169 0.200 014 9
Ag异常 1.168 861 -1.260 549 2.429 410 0.090 956 0.333 348 8
Table 2  研究区各预测变量证据权重值统计结果
预测变量 地层 韧性剪
切域		 脆性断束
50 m缓冲区		 岩浆岩150 m
缓冲区		 与Au有关
的蚀变带		 Au异常 As异常 Sb异常 Ag异常
地层 —
韧性剪切域 -40.25独立 —
脆性断束50 m缓冲区 -34.55独立 -30.20独立 —
岩浆岩150 m缓冲区 -15.58独立 -20.94独立 -12.81独立 —
与Au有关的蚀变带 -37.23独立 -37.30独立 -32.38独立 -12.52独立 —
Au异常 -37.11独立 -43.73独立 -56.12独立 -40.98独立 -18.59独立 —
As异常 -36.82独立 -35.25独立 -29.49独立 -37.91独立 -27.72独立 -9.16独立 —
Sb异常 -43.77独立 -53.54独立 -49.74独立 -34.05独立 -29.33独立 -18.82独立 -19.80独立 —
Ag异常 -38.82独立 -35.34独立 -21.08独立 -16.02独立 -14.72独立 -19.54独立 -10.75独立 -15.30独立 —
Table 3  研究区各预测变量独立性检验结果
Fig.3  后验概率累积频率
Fig.4  预测单元后验概率分布
Fig.5  老湾地区金矿成矿预测
编号 后验概率最大值 后验概率平均值 面积/km2 已发现矿床点数
Ⅰ1 0.999997 0.860023 7.17 4
Ⅰ2 0.999997 0.852098 2.79 2
Ⅰ3 0.999997 0.876286 3.47 2
Ⅰ4 0.999868 0.874190 1.47 1
Ⅱ1 0.996198 0.773105 0.80 1
Ⅱ2 0.99997 0.624653 0.96 2
Ⅱ3 0.999965 0.781311 1.24 0
Ⅱ4 0.997268 0.598727 1.22 1
Table 4  老湾地区金矿找矿远景区
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