调查评价的土壤元素累积趋势预测——以广西南宁市西乡塘区为例

doi:10.11720/wtyht.2023.2613

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Abstract

The heavy metal element contents in soil affect the quality of soil environment. Their prediction using different models based on survey data is an important means to study the changing trends of soil element contents and soil environmental quality. Based on the data from 1∶250 000 multi-purpose regional geochemical surveys and 1∶50 000 land quality geochemical assessments, this study predicted the contents of five heavy metal elements in the soil of the study area in 2027 using the single-period incremental model and the input-output flux model individually. The results are as follows. The two models yielded different prediction results but consistent trends that the contents of five heavy metal elements increased to different degrees. Moreover, the single-period incremental model yielded larger increments than the input-output flux model. Among the various input channels of the flux model, Cd and Pb entered the soil mainly through dry and wet atmospheric subsidence, As and Cr entered the soil mainly through fertilization, and Hg entered the soil mainly through irrigation water. Based on the survey and prediction data of soil monitoring sites, the soil environmental quality grade was classified for these sites. The proportion of the sites for priority protection showed a downward trend, indicating that the soil environmental quality decreased year by year.

Key words： soil heavy metal geochemical survey accumulation trend prediction change in environmental quality Nanning City

Received: 15 November 2021 Published: 24 February 2023

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	Lei WANG
	Xiao-Xiong ZHUO
	Tian-Sheng WU
	Sheng-Hua LING
	Xiao-Yu ZHONG
	Xiao-Meng ZHAO

Cite this article:

Lei WANG,Xiao-Xiong ZHUO,Tian-Sheng WU, et al. Prediction of the soil element accumulation trends based on 1∶250 000 and 1∶50 000 geochemical surveys and assessments of land quality:A case study of Xixiangtang District, Nanning City, Guangxi zhuang Autonomous Region[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2023, 47(1): 1-13.

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https://www.wutanyuhuatan.com/EN/10.11720/wtyht.2023.2613 OR https://www.wutanyuhuatan.com/EN/Y2023/V47/I1/1

Analysis method and detection limit of topsoil survey samples

Accuracy and precision of first grade standard materials in topsoil survey samples

Qualification rate of duplicate topsoil survey samples

Survey point map of the study area

Arithmetic mean value of element content and pH in topsoil survey samples

Correlation and t-test of element contents and pH in W_B3 and W_A

Element contents and pH distribution of W_B3 and W_A

Average input fluxes of heavy metals from dry and wet atmospheric deposition in Xixiangtang District in 2017 kg/(km²·a)

Average input fluxes of heavy metals from irrigation water in Xixiangtang District in 2017kg/(km²·a)

Average input fluxes of heavy metals from fertilizer in Xixiangtang District in 2017kg/(km²·a)

Average output fluxes of heavy metals from crops in Xixiangtang District in 2017 kg/(km²·a)

Average output fluxes of heavy metals from irrigation and drainage in Xixiangtang District in 2017kg/(km²·a)

Grade classification of soil environmental quality of agricultural land

Prediction of soil heavy metal contents in 2027 by single-period incremental model

Flux model annual net input flux of heavy metals into soilkg/(km²·a)

Prediction of soil heavy metal contents in 2027 by flux model

Contribution ratio of different input paths to input and output fluxes of each element

Grade statistical of soil environmental quality at point (n=189)

Comprehensive grade map of soil environmental quality
a—2007 survey data;b—2017 survey data;c—2027 flux model forecast data;d—2027 single-period incremental model forecast data

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